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My Predictions for Tuesday

While I am not sure if anyone will read this, I want to go on record.

Obama will win by 4.5 percent.

Of the current toss up states (Those that are leaning or toss up at RealClearPolitics):

Obama will win:

Florida, Virgina, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Missouri (my nail-biter)

McCain will win:

North Carolina (though I am hoping for Obama on this one), Indiana, Georgia, Montana, Arizona, and South Dakota

Electoral Count:

Obama: 349

McCain: 189

Democratic seats in the Senate in January: 57

Overall, I predict a Happy Day.

Please add you predictions in the comments.

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Comments

  1. I think Obama will Missouri, but other than that I agree with you. Happy day for sure.

  2. jj,

    I am guessing that you think that he will lose Missouri. That is clearly possible since the polls have not been about 1 percents for either candidate for the last few weeks.

    Thanks for chiming in.

  3. I generally agree with your forecast, though it would be wonderful to see Obama win a state like Montana or South Dakota, and it would be pure delight to see him steal Arizona.

    The new blog looks great, btw, and I look forward to future posts. We’ve added you to our blogroll at the Juvenile Instructor. I know at least a few of us there will be regular readers of Approaching Justice.

  4. Hey thanks Christopher! Nice name by the way.

    For me North Carolina would be the icing on the cake. To win both VA and NC, along with some western states (at least Colorado and NM) would be some major in roads into both the Southern Strategy states and the sagebrush rebellion states.

    While there is much talk about tightening, it seems to be working both directions.

  5. Chris, any predictions on California’s Prop 8? I think it will be defeated. No reason, just a gut feeling.

  6. And on the presidential, I think Obama will win, but by a narrower electoral margin than you predict.

    Is this a new blog for you? Did you get booted from FPR? I like the theme…sort of medieval hippy….

  7. Sheldon,

    I am trying to figure out the percentage needed to pass Prop.8. Since it is a constitutional amendment, it might need more than a simple majority. If it requires 60 percent or more, I do not think it will pass. If it only requires 50 percent, it might.

    Anybody know what margin it need to get to pass?

    Yes, it is a new blog. I did not get booted. I just decided that I needed my own space.

    Medieval hippy….I like that.

  8. I think it’s a simple majority on Prop 8, which seems weird for something like an amendment. The polls indicate a dead heat, and people are still saying its too close to call.

  9. I’ve enjoyed your posts at FPR, and look forward to the many you will write here.

  10. Thanks Holdinator, I will start posted a few times a week after I get caught up on the grading I neglected during election week.

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