Click the map to create your own at Two months ago, I would have predicted Clinton getting closer to the 350 mark. I think it is still possible, but I also don’t thing that is what the Clinton campaign is aiming for.
In terms of the popular vote. this is my guess:
Clinton 50%
Trump 44%
Johnson 3%
Stein: <1%
McMullin <1%
I think my having Clinton at 50% might be a stretch, by not completely a stretch. Most of the polls show her at a bit below 50%, but they still include a fair number of undecided responses.
I also think that Clinton’s massive advantage in campaign structure, mobilization, and GOTV machine could lead to her heavily outperforming what I have predicted.
We shall see.
I predict the Senate will be a 50/50 split with VP Kaine breaking the tie. In particular, Bayh loses in Indiana. Cortez Masto takes NV.
In the U.S. House, the Democrats pick up 12 seats. Far short of the 30 seat needed to regain the majority. This is mostly based on the number of current GOP seats considered to be toss-ups. In other words, this is more of a guess than my other predictions above.
So much for your predictions. I am sure you were not alone. What does this say about our polls / analysis?
Yeah, no kidding. I don’t have a coherent answer to your question…yet. 🙂